Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: The US Supreme Court has put a Uinta Basin railway project back on the table for oil producers.
Rigs: The US rig count remained flat during the week of May 18 at 541
Storage: East Daley expects a 0.18 MMbbl draw from storage for the week ending May 30.
Rigs:
The total US rig count remained flat during the week of May 18 at 541. Liquids-driven basins decreased by 5 W-o-W from 432 to 427.
Infrastructure:
On Thursday (May 29), the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) issued a decisive 8-0 ruling in the Seven County Infrastructure v Eagle County, CO case, reversing an appellate court decision that had halted the Uinta railway project. The ruling puts the expansion back on the table for Uinta oil producers, assuming lower prices haven’t dampened interest.
The Surface Transportation Board initially granted approval in December ’21 for investors to build ~88 miles of train tracks connecting the Uinta Basin in northeastern Utah to a Union Pacific Railroad station in Kyune, UT. From there, railcars would travel east through western Colorado to a rail hub in Denver and connect to the national rail network.
East Daley has closely followed the court case for its implications in the Uinta and for the industry at large. The case considers how federal agencies evaluate the environmental impacts of development. Under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), infrastructure projects approved by the federal government require an environmental impact statement (EIS).
Eagle County argued that the EIS did not adequately address upstream and downstream implications from connecting the Uinta to the national rail network. SCOTUS disagreed. As Justice Kavanaugh wrote in the unanimous opinion, “NEPA is a procedural cross-check, not a substantive roadblock. The goal of the law is to inform decision making, not to paralyze it.” The SCOTUS opinion sends approval of the project back to the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia.
The court case will have broader impacts on oil and gas projects and how federal agencies conduct environmental reviews under NEPA. By limiting the scope of NEPA review, SCOTUS may pave the way for faster approval of fossil fuel and other infrastructure projects.
The Uinta Basin has seen growing interest from producers but is hamstrung geographically. The basin is surrounded by mountain ranges and has limited connectivity to markets. Today, the only egress available is to local Salt Lake City refineries (~218 Mb/d of demand) and manifest trains. Connecting to the national railway network would improve transportation economics and allow producer to move barrels to major market hubs. The Seven County Infrastructure Coalition, which forms the Uinta Basin Railway, forecasts production would grow by ~100 Mb/d in two years if the rail expansion were available.
However, this legal victory collides with commercial headwinds for Uinta producers. WTI prices are trading lower near $60/bbl as OPEC+ unwinds voluntary production cuts, contributing to fears of oversupply. Compounding these challenges are persistent tariff and trade tensions, which further undermine confidence in new large-scale capital investments. As illustrated in the graph above, East Daley’s Uinta Basin Production Model has been revised downward by ~5% since January 2025. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop and a $1.5B estimated cost, the project may ultimately be deferred until the market rebounds.
See the Uinta Basin Crude Oil S&D Report for more information.
Storage:
East Daley expects a .18 MMbbl draw from commercial and Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories for the week ending May 30. We expect total US stocks, including the SPR, will close at 842 MMbbl.
The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, decreased 4.7% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins. Samples increased 2.65% in the Eagle Ford and .33% in the Williston Basin and decreased 6.94% in the Permian and 3.34% in the Gulf of Mexico. The Rockies and the Gulf of Mexico have a high correlation between gas volumes and crude oil volumes, whereas the Permian and Eagle Ford basins correlation is less than 45%.
We expect US crude production to be 13.4 MMb/d. According to US bill of lading data, US crude imports increased to 6.45 MMb/d. More than 60% of the supply originated from Canadian pipelines and vessels into the US, with the remainder largely coming from vessels carrying crude from Mexico and Nigeria.
As of May 30, there was ~585 Mb/d of refining capacity offline, including downtime for planned and unplanned maintenance. EDA expects gross crude input into refineries to increase, coming in at 16.6 MMb/d.
Vessel traffic monitored by EDA along the Gulf Coast decreased W-o-W. There were 23 vessels loaded for the week ending May 23 and 27 the prior week. EDA expects US exports to be 3.75 MMb/d.
The SPR awarded contracts for 6.0 MMbbl to be delivered To Choctaw February –May 2025 and 2.4 MMbbl to be delivered to Bryan Mound April – May 2025. The SPR has 402 MMbbl in storage as of May 23, 2025.
Vessel traffic monitored by EDA along the Gulf Coast increased W-o-W. There were 27 vessels loaded for the week ending May 23 and 22 the prior week. EDA expects US exports to be 4.3 MMb/d.
The SPR awarded contracts for 6.0 MMbbl to be delivered to Choctaw February–May 2025 and 2.4 MMbbl to be delivered to Bryan Mound April–May 2025. The SPR has 400 MMbbl in storage as of May 16, 2025.
Regulatory and Tariffs:
Presented by ARBO
Tariffs:
Platte Pipe Line Company, LLC Terminaling services were added at Casper, WY for delivery to Frontier Aspen, LLC to accommodate shippers’ requests. The rate was agreed to by at least one non-affiliated shipper. FERC No 4.6.0 IS25-312 Effective June 15, 2025.
The above information is provided by ARBO’s Oil Pipeline Tariff Monitor. For more information on regulatory proceedings or tariff rates, please contact please contact Corey Brill via email at corey@goarbo.com or phone at 202-505-5296. https://www.goarbo.com/