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NGL Production Falls 10% in December as Flaring, Ethane Rejection Soar

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NGL Roundup: March 8, 2023

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NGL production declined 10% M-o-M and 4% Y-o-Y in December - the first decline since Winter Storm Uri. December numbers were likely impacted by Winter Storm Elliott, as most major basins saw large drops across the board. In addition, we expect the numbers to reflect increased flaring in the Permian and ethane rejection in the Rockies and Anadarko.

Frac spreads for the Rockies and Anadarko are heavily backwardated heading into 2H23, indicating ethane rejection will continue, especially in basins like the Anadarko, Williston and DJ.

Weekly propane/propylene inventories are finally declining after a delayed start to the withdrawal season. Strong exports have helped pull inventories down from the 5-year high, but they remain above the 5-year average.

Interested in tracking basin and sub-basin NGL production, ethane rejection, and frac utilization? EDA’s NGL Network Model and Purity Product Forecast will help you dig deeper than EIA data and connect the dots between NGL supply and demand.

NGL Plant Production 3.8.23

Get a complete view of NGL markets in The NGL Roundup, now available FREE from East Daley Analytics.

The NGL Roundup reviews monthly NGL data from EIA and East Daley’s own basin-level supply forecasts of Y-grade and NGL purity products. Follow key NGL data trends:

  • NGL production by basin
  • Supply forecasts by NGL purity product
  • Ethane recovery by basin
  • Historical and future NGL prices
  • Conway and Mont Belvieu frac spreads
  • NGL storage trends
  • Regional NGL exports 

The NGL Roundup is East Daley’s latest product driving transparency to energy markets.  We provide a FREE snapshot of data from our NGL Network Model and Purity Product Dataset. These reports tie our NGL supply forecasts to downstream markets, providing asset-specific insights such as pipeline and fractionation volumes and rates.

We use our patented method to monitor midstream flows from processing plants to fractionation centers, identifying infrastructure bottlenecks before the market recognizes them. Using a bottoms-up approach to supply, we go deeper than the PADD or sub-PADD level to truly understand what is happening on the ground in NGLs.   

For a free trial of our NGL Purity Product dashboard or to inquire about the NGL Network Model, please contact abakshani@eastdaley.com or fill out the form.

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