The Daley Note: May 18, 2023
Wildfires in northern Alberta and British Columbia have led producers and midstream operators to shut-in some infrastructure. Companies temporarily took offline at least five gas processing facilities and numerous pump stations during evacuations, dropping oil and gas production from Western Canada.
East Daley Analytics forecasts oil and gas production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) as part of our North American coverage in Energy Data Studio (see figure). Companies cut more than 200 Mb/d of crude oil production at the peak, according to market reports, while TC Energy’s (TRP) Nova Gas Transmission system in Alberta reported up to a ~2.5 Bcf/d drop in daily natural gas receipts.
The situation in Western Canada is fluid, with some companies returning facilities to service late last week while new infrastructure has been shut based on the anticipated spread of fires. The wildfires have burned over 1,800 square miles in northern Canada so far, according to NASA Earth Observatory. Operators reporting cuts include Paramount Resources, Tamarack Valley Resources, Vermillion Energy, Cenovus, Tourmaline Oil, Kiwetinohk Energy, Pipestone Energy, and Crescent Point Energy.
Pembina Pipeline (PBA) said May 8 it temporarily shut down the Saturn I and II gas plants at the Saturn and Duvernay gas processing complexes due to evacuation orders. PBA earlier shut-in the 20-inch Peace Pipeline to Edmonton, AB, and the Wapiti, KA and K3 gas plants near Fox Creek, AB. As of last Thursday (May 11), PBA reported all its midstream infrastructure was back online with no damage to facilities.
Tidewater Midstream reported it shut down the Brazeau complex. According to East Daley’s analysis, this has affected production on the Paramount Resources and Vermillion Resources system. Tourmaline Oil also announced it has resumed operations at seven facilities and is bringing another two back online. Crescent Point shut-in up to 45 Mboe/d of production in the Duvernay resource play but as of May 12 had restored 85% of output, the producer said.
Using East Daley’s Financial Blueprints, users can quantify the wildfire risks to Canadian midstream companies. For example, if we assumed PBA’s Saturn and Duvernay complexes were offline for 14 days, then Pembina could see a $4.6MM reduction at these facilities (plus additional volume/profit lost on downstream pipelines and fractionators).
Using the same scenario in the Enbridge (ENB) Blueprint, a loss of 200 Mb/d on the Mainline pipeline system for 14 days would lower Adj. EBITDA by $16MM. This would represent a 3% reduction in total EBITDA for ENB during this period, according to the ENB Blueprint. – Kristine Oleszek Tickers: ENB, PBA, TRP.
East Daley Analytics is Heading to EIC
East Daley Analytics is excited to attend and host a fireside chat at the 20th Annual Energy Infrastructure Conference. Justin Carlson, East Daley Analytics CCO, will be hosting a Fireside Chat on Tuesday, May 23 from 3:40 - 4:15 pm discussing the Probability, the Pain, and the Potential for Energy Infrastructure in the U.S. Learn more.
Request Access to Energy Data Studio
East Daley Analytics has launched Energy Data Studio, a platform for our industry-leading midstream data and commodity production forecasts. All clients have access to the new client portal. If you have not yet logged in, please fill out the form to request a registration email be resent.
Energy Data Studio leverages our G&P data set for insights into midstream assets across every major oil and gas basin in North America. Users can navigate detailed visual dashboards by region, pipeline, or individual asset to understand crude oil, natural gas and NGL supply at the most granular level.
Energy Data Studio is available through data downloads from the visual interface, in Excel files, or as a direct feed delivered into subscribers’ workflow via secure file transfer. To learn more about Energy Data Studio, please contact insight@eastdaley.com.
Request Access to Energy Data Studio
East Daley Analytics has launched Energy Data Studio, a platform for our industry-leading midstream data and commodity production forecasts. All clients have access to the new client portal. If you have not yet logged in, please fill out the form to request a registration email be resent.
Energy Data Studio leverages our G&P data set for insights into midstream assets across every major oil and gas basin in North America. Users can navigate detailed visual dashboards by region, pipeline, or individual asset to understand crude oil, natural gas and NGL supply at the most granular level.
Energy Data Studio is available through data downloads from the visual interface, in Excel files, or as a direct feed delivered into subscribers’ workflow via secure file transfer. To learn more about Energy Data Studio, please contact insight@eastdaley.com.
Review the Year Ahead in Dirty Little Secrets
The 2023 Dirty Little Secrets is Now Available! Is Midstream on the cusp of another infrastructure wave? Find out in our new annual report.
Dirty Little Secrets reviews the outlook for Midstream and commodity markets in 2023 and the years ahead. East Daley discusses the outlook for crude oil, natural gas and NGLs and the impacts to midstream assets in our 2023 Dirty Little Secrets annual market report. Click here for a copy of the 2023 Dirty Little Secrets report.
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