Executive Summary: Infrastructure: A massive reserve revision is shaping the Canadian propane narrative, and the effects are already crossing the border. Rigs: The total US rig count decreased by 6 during the week of April 13 to 571. Liquids-driven basins decreased by 7 W-o-W from 470 to 463. Flows: For the week ending April 27, US natural gas volumes averaged 69.8 Bcf/d in pipeline samples, marking a modest W-o-W decline from 70.1 Bcf/d the previous week. Storage: East Daley’s February 2025 estimates closely tracked EIA’s reported data. Calendar: WMB Earning 5/5 | MPC, MPLX & ET Earnings 5/6 | Bakken & NE Ethane SD 5/9.
Infrastructure:
A massive reserve revision is shaping the Canadian propane narrative, and the effects are already crossing the border.
In a reassessment commissioned by the Alberta Energy Regulator, McDaniel & Associates recently increased Alberta’s proven natural gas reserves from 24 TCF to 130 TCF, a more than fivefold jump that vaults Canada into the top tier of global gas holders. The increase is credited to improved resource characterization and unlocking volumes in plays like the Montney, Duvernay, and Deep Basin using horizontal drilling and multilateral wells.
More gas means more NGLs - and propane is now flowing faster than Canada can clear it. With West Coast export terminals approaching capacity (AltaGas’s RIPET and Pembina’s Watson Island totaling ~117 Mb/d), incremental supply has nowhere to go but south. In 2024, over 80% of Canadian propane exports to the US moved by rail, per the Canada Energy Regulator.
This wave of supply is landing squarely in the Midwest. Conway, already a key propane hub, is absorbing growing volumes from Alberta, often at a discount to US barrels. The Edmonton-to-Conway spread widened in 1Q25, incentivizing more rail movements. Pressure is rising on Midcontinent prices, especially as summer approaches and U.S. demand softens.
But the US Gulf Coast may benefit. As Canadian propane builds up inland, it increasingly will find its way to Mont Belvieu via Conway and other blending points, where exporters are ramping up LPG dock capacity. US players with fractionation and terminal access could see cheaper feedstock and fatter export margins, turning Canada’s surplus into Gulf Coast upside.
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased by 6 during the week of April 13 to 571. Liquids-driven basins decreased by 7 W-o-W from 470 to 463.
- Permian (-5):
- Delaware (-4): Permian Resources, Occidental Petroleum, EOG Resources, Chevron
- Midland (-1): Occidental Petroleum
- Anadarko (-1): American Warrior
- DJ (-1): Chevron
- Eagle Ford (-1): Grit Oil & Gas Management
- Uinta (+1): Scout Energy Partners
Flows: For the week ending April 27, US natural gas volumes averaged 69.8 Bcf/d in pipeline samples, marking a modest W-o-W decline from 70.1 Bcf/d the previous week.
Liquids-driven basins were relatively stable at 18.0 Bcf/d, recording a minor W-o-W decrease. The Permian Basin increased by 118 MMcf/d W-o-W to average 5.99 Bcf/d, while the Anadarko Basin sample declined to an average of 3.96 Bcf/d.
Gas-driven basins declined on a W-o-W basis by 175 MMcf/d, averaging 44.35 Bcf/d. Within this segment, the Haynesville declined by 1% from 10.91 Bcf/d to 10.81 Bcf/d. Similar to the Appalachian that decline from 32.63 to 32.54 Bcf/d, a 1% decrease.
Looking ahead, the Appalachia and Haynesville basins will be pivotal to monitor. With increased demand on the horizon, we expect increased production from these regions will be critical to maintaining balance between supply and demand.
Storage:
Propane inventories are projected to fall to 43 million barrels by March, a three-year low, driven by a colder-than-expected winter and steady exports. With production declining and exports holding strong, storage levels could approach five-year lows by the end of 2025, setting a bullish tone for prices heading into next winter.
Meanwhile, ethane storage is expected to hit a record 83 million barrels in 2025 due to high recovery rates in the Permian Basin ahead of the Matterhorn Express pipeline expansion. Once operational, Matterhorn will support growing international demand via the NRP1 dock expansion slated for October 2025.
East Daley’s February 2025 estimates closely tracked EIA’s reported data, with minor variances—1–2% higher for both ethane and propane supply and storage—underscoring the reliability of EDA’s modeling and its sensitivity to evolving market conditions.
This analysis is available in East Daley’s Ethane and Propane Supply & Demand reports and dashboards—powerful tools designed to help clients stay ahead of market-moving trends, quantify risk, and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
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