East Daley Analytics – Dissecting the Energy Value Chain


Why You Need to Know Midstream’s Dirty Little Secrets

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In the latest DLS report and webinar, we discussed…

2024 Natural Gas Demand Forecast

Natural Gas Key Takeaways:

  • Elevated production and high storage inventory lead to downward pressure on natural gas prices through mid-2024.
  • From mid-2024 to 2026, new LNG projects tighten the gas market as producers try to keep pace with growing export demand.
  • From 2027 to 2030, volatility comes from the completion of LNG projects that could reach a final investment decision (FID) in 2024, as well as pipeline infrastructure associated with those facilities.
  • Regional basis markets from the West Coast to the Northeast will be more volatile as markets react to LNG-driven price changes.
  • Flexible high-turn storage must be an infrastructure priority as storage capacity is not keeping up with production or demand.

Jack Weixel, Senior Director of Natural Gas: jweixel@eastdaley.com

2024 Crude Oil Outlook

Crude Oil Key Takeaways:

Crude Oil Markets Plow Forward – Tighter Supply and Demand Balance and Shifting Flow Dynamics

  • The US crude oil market remains tight as supply trails export demand, and producers continue to prioritize capital discipline and inventory building over market capture.
  • Changes in crude oil flows create opportunities as the US market adapts to changes in refinery supply and export infrastructure efficiencies.
  • The Permian-to-Gulf Coast pipeline corridor continues to tighten on the heels of steadily increasing Permian production.

Kristy Oleszek, Crude Oil Director: koleszek@eastdaley.com

2024 NGL Forecast

Natural Gas Liquids Key Takeaways:

  • The Fight is on for NGL Barrels: Midstream is using free cash flow to build pipelines that will transport NGL production growth out of the Permian for the next 5-10 years. Capacity looks ample, driving heavy competition for molecules and leading to downward pressure on T&F rates.
  • A Molecule Lost Means $0.50 on the Dollar Gone: Spending capital ahead of demand is necessary to grab as much market share as possible from producers, thus limiting the risk of losing out on the downstream dollar.
  • Downstream Opportunity from Midstream Prematurity: Enticing producers to commit as shippers on expanded NGL pipelines de-risks capital spend for fractionation and LPG export terminals.
  • Logistical Path Ripe for M&A: ET, EPD and TRGP have benefited from integrated value-chain economics in NGLs. A ‘Fourth Alliance’ could be formed if a competitor steps up to link assets from the wellhead to export docks. Otherwise, it could be irrelevance or domination for other companies in the NGL space.

Rob Wilson, Vice President of Analytics: rwilson@eastdaley.com

2024 Midstream Oil and Gas Outlook

Midstream Company Financials Key Takeaways:

The midstream sector has been slowly consolidating, and we expect to see many more deals in 2024. Energy Transfer (ET) kicked off the trend in 2021 with its acquisition of Enable Midstream. Enterprise Products (EPD) and Targa Resources (TRGP) followed in 2022, targeting large privates Navitas and Lucid. ONEOK and Magellan joined forces in 2023, followed by a tie-up between Energy Transfer (ET) and Crestwood (CEQP). In Dirty Little Secrets, East Daley explores why 2024 may be an even bigger year for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and in some cases, the strategic value behind consolidation.

  • Midstream is ripe for consolidation. The industry is generating positive free cash flow (FCF) after dividends, and companies have dramatically reduced leverage ratios. Combine healthier balance sheets with fewer organic growth opportunities and lower valuations, and M&A looks especially attractive for capital allocation.
  • M&A strategies with three targets: scale, growth and long-term value. Companies need M&A if they want to compete effectively in a lower-growth environment. Recent deals reflect this reality, and we expect the trend to continue.
  • Expect more public company consolidation. We expect M&A between public companies to dominate the headlines as G&P-focused SMID-caps become limited by short-term growth dynamics, while large-caps look to backfill vertically integrated strategies.

Ajay Bakshani, Director of Midstream Company Financials: abakshani@eastdaley.com


From crude and NGL forecasts to midstream oil and gas industry outlooks, get a taste of our insights into the upcoming 2024 industry landscape with our weekly DLS preview articles:


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Dirty Little Secrets FAQs

Who is Dirty Little Secrets for?

Dirty Little Secrets is our annual live webinar and report report for industry professionals and clients in the oil and gas sector who are interested in staying updated on North American midstream market trends and developments.

This report caters to people who are interested in knowing how the events of the previous year may affect business opportunities in the coming year so they can prepare their oil and gas outlooks, and maintain their edge over competitors.

Can I get this year’s Dirty Little Secrets report if I miss the webinar?

If you miss the live Dirty Little Secrets webinar, you can still download the report afterward. We release a new Dirty Little Secrets report in December of every year following the webinar. 2023’s DLS was published in December, 2022. Likewise, 2024’s DLS will go live in December, 2023. Stay tuned!

How much does Dirty Little Secrets cost?

This year’s Dirty Little Secrets webinar and previous years’ reports and recording are provided completely complementary to industry professionals and clients. We believe in sharing valuable insights and predictions to benefit the industry, and DLS is one of our many free resources to help professionals gain a clear and competitive oil and gas industry outlook.

However, we offer a plethora of other premium subscription options. These products, including the Energy Data Studio™, Crude, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids, offer more comprehensive access to East Daley insights and additional features.

Are previous years’ Dirty Little Secrets reports and webinars available?

You can find previous DLS webinar recordings, along with other webinars and informative video breakdowns, available for free on the East Daley Analytics YouTube channel. For overviews of past DLS reports or to inquire about access to future DLS installments, contact us.

How can I contact the Dirty Little Secrets support team?

If you have any questions, feedback, or support inquiries regarding Dirty Little Secrets, feel free to reach out to our support team by sending us a message via our contact page. We would be happy to assist you.

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