East Daley forecasts the Southeast will be short natural gas in 2026 and ’27 owing to more than 3 Bcf/d of demand pressure from Plaquemines LNG. Based on historical pipeline usage in the region, we expect flows to Plaquemines to cap around 2.6 Bcf/d during the summer months as the new LNG facility competes for supply with utilities in Florida and surrounding states.
However, the latest pipeline samples show Plaquemines LNG is already pulling as much as 2.8 Bcf/d, a new peak record set on June 6 (see figure). Over half of these volumes are coming from Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP), from as far north as Station 860 in Centerville, TN.
On TGP, Station 534 at the Mississippi-Louisiana border has seen a significant increase in throughput to meet Plaquemines demand, reaching as high as 1.2 Bcf/d. Those TGP volumes are coming from Midcontinent Express Pipeline (MEP), Southern Natural (Sonat) and the Transcontinental (Transco) systems. MEP contributes nearly 400 MMcf/d starting in 2025, while Sonat and Transco have delivered a steady ~300 MMcf/d combined. We assume the remaining ~500 MMcf/d is coming further upstream on TGP, potentially from the Northeast.
There is also significant daily variation in deliveries to Plaquemines. When TGP flows fell to zero in early May, both Texas Eastern (TETCO) and Columbia Gas Transmission (CGT) picked up the slack for several days until TGP volumes returned. Only a few days later, on May 13, deliveries to Plaquemines peaked at 2.7 Bcf/d despite TGP only flowing 960 MMcf/d. And on May 15, TGP volumes doubled to 1.88 Bcf/d, despite total feedgas intake dropping below 2.5 Bcf/d.
Demand is on the rise in the Southeast, especially in the summer when gas generators are running hard to meet cooling load. EDA expects summer premiums at Transco Station 85 will soon make these TGP molecules less economical for Venture Global (VG). However, the company is certainly willing to push the limits of its new infrastructure while prices allow. Feedgas volumes likely will settle into a steadier rhythm once the facility is completed and commercial operations begin in late 2026. For now though, volatility in the Southeast is the status quo.
See the Southeast Gulf Supply & Demand Report for more analysis on supply, demand and flows on the Gulf Coast. – Oren Pilant Tickers: VG.
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