Kinder Morgan (KMI) is still months out from starting the conversion of Double H Pipeline from crude oil to NGL service, yet new data suggests some Bakken shippers have already moved on.
In the latest Crude Hub Model and Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Crude Oil S&D report, East Daley Analytics highlighted a significant M-o-M decrease in Double H throughput into the Guernsey market in Wyoming. Data filed with North Dakota regulators indicates throughput decreased ~32 Mb/d from January to February ’25, suggesting contracts are beginning to roll off and that the pipeline will struggle to retain the ~76% utilization it has maintained since May ’24. We now forecast Double H will discontinue oil deliveries post-July ’25, two months earlier than our previous forecast of Sept ’25 (see figure).
Several competing pipelines have held open seasons for Bakken, Guernsey and Denver-Julesburg (DJ) crude egress, shortening the timeline for Double H. Notably, Bridger and Pony Express pipelines announced an open season for joint incentive tariff rates on February 14, and Pony Express began an open season from its Colorado origins on March 7. Furthermore, effective April 1, KMI published a cancellation notice for its Double H joint tariff with Pony Express.
East Daley believes Bridger and Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) will be the beneficiaries of Double H’s exit. We expect Bridger will absorb ~50% of the Double H throughput while DAPL has the opportunity to attract the remaining ~30 Mb/d based on tariff rates and end markets. Operated by Energy Transfer (ET), DAPL can move barrels past PADD 2 (Midwest) refiners to the Houston export market and potentially into Louisiana via Bayou Bridge.
With Double H service nearing a close, producers can participate in these open seasons – or partner with a marketer – to secure capacity on favorable routes and tariffs. Those with confirmed capacity agreements are better positioned to preserve or enhance margins, while those without may face higher costs, rerouted flows, or exposure to tighter regional differentials.
See East Daley’s Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Crude Oil S&D Report for more analysis of crude oil production, demand and flows in the region. – Gage Dwan Tickers: ET, KMI.
Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Crude Oil Supply & Demand Report
East Daley’s Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Crude Oil S&D Report provides in-depth analysis of crude oil production, demand and pipeline flows in the Bakken and Rocky Mountain regions. The monthly report now features an interactive dashboard and includes our forecast for the Uinta Basin. This report uniquely visualizes crude oil supply, demand and flows in the Bakken and Rockies regions. Learn more about the Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Crude Oil Crude Oil Report.
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