Long shelved by legal setbacks, the Constitution Pipeline and Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) projects have been thrust back into the spotlight thanks to vocal backing from President Trump. Williams (WMB) has revived hope that each project could finally clear critical approvals, though we suspect only one is truly viable if WMB can thread the political needle.
The 121-mile Constitution proposal relies on a 15-year capacity lease with Iroquois Gas Transmission, plus a new compressor and metering station in Wright, NY to push up to 650 MMcf/d into Iroquois. The original project filing at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) included no pipe looping, mainline uprates or other supplemental compression, meaning it was not scoped to add incremental capacity to Iroquois.
Despite the President’s backing, East Daley Analytics is skeptical the Constitution project will ever get off the ground. In 2024, Iroquois averaged 58% utilization and reached peak flows of 88% of total throughput capacity, while the Brookfield interconnect averaged 80% utilization and spiked to 98% during peak periods (see figure above). Such high baseload and peak-day usage — coupled with nearly full contractual commitments — means there is virtually no latent capacity available. Without a coordinated Iroquois expansion, Constitution simply shuffles existing volumes rather than injecting new molecules into the premium Transcontinental Zone 6 market.
By contrast, NESE’s 400 MMcf/d of firm transport from York County, PA into New York City and Long Island directly supplies Transco Zone 6. NESE’s design avoids new right-of-way, minimizes environmental risk, and taps growing power sector demand. As such, it likely offers better project economics than the Constitution project.
With President Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly championing Constitution, Williams gains high-level political cover. Yet East Daley believes management will leverage that spotlight to fast-track NESE — where execution risk and returns both look superior — while letting the din around Constitution gradually fade. Indeed, WMB's capital priorities overwhelmingly favor its “demand-pull” backlog over standalone greenfield projects.
Should Constitution be built without reinforcements on Iroquois, we envision two outcomes:
• Full flow via displacement. Up to 650 MMcf/d could move, but only by backing out Canadian supply at northern receipt points. This would leave net Zone 6 volumes unchanged.
• Partial utilization. Canadian flows persist, capping Constitution at residual capacity.
Given downstream constraints, weaker estimated returns, and the rise of Millennium PRO as an alternative project, East Daley maintains that NESE — not Constitution — is the project most likely to move forward. – Zach Krause Tickers: WMB.
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