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Propane & Propylene Jumped from 5-Year Lows to 5-year Highs

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NGL Roundup: December 5, 2022

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NGL production increased 1% M-o-M (65 Mb/d) in November to 6,096 Mb/d, which was 1% above estimates published in East Daley’s NGL Purity Product Forecast. Total NGL production rose 9% Y-o-Y, a gain of 552 Mb/d.

Overall production was in line with our estimates, but the mix of ethane rejection/recovery in the DJ and Anadarko basins was a surprise. We expected a sharp decrease in Anadarko C2 production due to frac constraints. However, EIA reported only a 4% decrease in Anadarko C2 production while C2 production in the DJ Basin dropped by 17% M-o-M.

Weekly propane/propylene inventories have jumped from 5-year lows to 5-year highs in a matter of months. We believe this jump reflects the tight fractionation capacity and expect inventory levels to remain high until sufficient fractionation capacity is added.

Interested in tracking basin and sub-basin NGL production, ethane rejection, and frac utilization? EDA’s NGL Network Model and Purity Product Forecast will help you dig deeper than EIA data and connect the dots between NGL supply and demand.

Join us on December 14, 2022, at 10:30 AM MST for our annual Dirty Little Secrets 2023 webinar, where we will explore our outlook for the Oil, Gas, and NGL markets.

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Get a complete view of NGL markets in The NGL Roundup, now available FREE from East Daley Analytics.

The NGL Roundup reviews monthly NGL data from EIA and East Daley’s own basin-level supply forecasts of Y-grade and NGL purity products. Follow key NGL data trends:

  • NGL production by basin
  • Supply forecasts by NGL purity product
  • Ethane recovery by basin
  • Historical and future NGL prices
  • Conway and Mont Belvieu frac spreads
  • NGL storage trends
  • Regional NGL exports 

The NGL Roundup is East Daley’s latest product driving transparency to energy markets.  We provide a FREE snapshot of data from our NGL Network Model and Purity Product Dataset. These reports tie our NGL supply forecasts to downstream markets, providing asset-specific insights such as pipeline and fractionation volumes and rates.

We use our patented method to monitor midstream flows from processing plants to fractionation centers, identifying infrastructure bottlenecks before the market recognizes them. Using a bottoms-up approach to supply, we go deeper than the PADD or sub-PADD level to truly understand what is happening on the ground in NGLs.   

For a free trial of our NGL Purity Product dashboard or to inquire about the NGL Network Model, please contact abakshani@eastdaley.com or fill out the form.

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