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Shock to the System: Sub-$2 Gas on the Horizon

Sub-$2.00 natural gas prices are now clearly in view, and there may not be a lot the market can do to prevent them.

Natural gas prices have already fallen by 65% this winter. The March front-month Henry Hub contract is trading below $2.50/MMBtu as of Monday (Feb. 6), and futures are under $3.00 through the first half of 2023.

But the price cuts aren’t deep enough, according to East Daley’s latest Macro Supply and Demand Forecast. We see the need for a “shock to the system” to slow production growth. Even with lower gas-directed drilling and lingering constraints on Permian pipeline takeaway, it may take a price shock to force producers to choke back wells and defer completions.