Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: ENB Captures WCSB Arbitrage.
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased during the week of June 1 to 523.
Storage: East Daley expects a 330 Mbbl withdrawal into storage for the week ending June 13.
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased during the week of June 1 to 523. Liquids-driven basins decreased by 3 W-o-W from 416 to 413.
- Permian (-1):
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- Delaware (-6): Vital Energy, Permian Resources, Matador Resources, Coterra Energy (-2), Spur Energy
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- Midland (+5): Vital Energy (+2), Occidental Petroleum, Double Eagle, Red Tail Exploration
- Bakken (-2): Hess, Chord Energy
- Uinta (+2): Uinta Wax Operating, Anschutz
- Anadarko (-1): Validus Energy
- Powder River (-1): Anschutz
Infrastructure:
US–Canadian crude oil import economics shifted between 3Q24 and 1Q25, and not due to the change in US presidency. Volumes moved between Enbridge’s (ENB) Mainline and Express–Platte pipelines, signaling that ENB is taking advantage of regional price arbitrage opportunities.
According to East Daley Analytics’ Crude Hub Model, Mainline volumes increased ~172 Mb/d from 3Q24–4Q24 while volumes delivered into Casper, WY on Express Pipeline decreased ~86 Mb/d during the same period. From 4Q24–1Q25, Express volumes strengthened by ~44 Mb/d and Mainline volumes grew ~54 Mb/d, suggesting the end of the regional arbitrage. However, steady gains in Mainline volumes demonstrates strength in Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) production growth.
Furthermore, ENB’s Flanagan South Pipeline and the Seaway Pipeline (jointly owned by ENB and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)) each saw substantial fluctuations during these quarters. The increased flows from the Midwest (PADD 2) to Cushing to the US Gulf Coast affirm East Daley Analytics’ view that the incremental barrel will be exported as US demand holds steady. Crude oil flows to EPD’s Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal increased ~188 Mb/d M-o-M from Nov ‘24–Dec ’24.
East Daley has highlighted Enbridge’s plans for incremental pipeline expansions, including a low-cost 30 Mb/d boost on its Express-Platte system, a phased 150 Mb/d Mainline market-access upgrade through 2027, and a binding open season to secure up to 100 Mb/d on Flanagan South. These projects will help ENB optimize its footprint to accommodate surging WCSB volumes and link barrels to high-value Gulf Coast export docks. This enhanced egress capacity not only enables arbitrage across ENB’s footprint, but also cements long-term shipper commitments and underpins sustainable toll-based earnings as Canadian production continues its upward trajectory.
Storage
East Daley expects a 330 Mbbl withdrawal into commercial and Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories for the week ending June 13. We expect total US stocks, including the SPR, will close at 838.5 MMbbl.
The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, increased 1.58% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins. Samples increased 3.7% in the Permian, 2.6% in the Gulf of Mexico, and 1.8% in the Rockies basins. However, these gains were partially offset by declines of 1.2% in the Eagle Ford and 0.45% in the Williston. The Rockies and the Gulf of Mexico have a high correlation between gas volumes and crude oil volumes, whereas the Permian and Eagle Ford basins correlation is less than 45%.
We expect US crude production to average 13.4 MMb/d. According to US bill of lading data, US crude imports increased to 6.28 MMb/d. More than 60% of the supply originated from Canadian pipelines and vessels into the US, with the remainder largely coming from vessels carrying crude from Mexico and Nigeria.
As of June 13, there was ~110 Mb/d of refining capacity offline, including downtime for planned and unplanned maintenance. EDA expects gross crude input into refineries to increase, coming in at 17.38 MMb/d.
Vessel traffic monitored by EDA along the Gulf Coast increased W-o-W. There were 26 vessels loaded for the week ending June 13, and 21 the prior week. EDA expects US exports to be 3.40 MMb/d.
The SPR awarded contracts for 6.0 MMbbl to be delivered to Choctaw February–May ‘25 and 2.4 MMbbl to be delivered to Bryan Mound April–May ‘25. The SPR has 432.9 MMbbl in storage as of June 13, 2025.
Regulatory and Tariffs:
Presented by ARBO
Tariffs:
Bridger Pipeline, LLC Rates were increased by the FERC index. Joint rates are less than or equal to the sum of the local rates. Effective July 1, 2025.
The above information is provided by ARBO’s Oil Pipeline Tariff Monitor. For more information on regulatory proceedings or tariff rates, please contact please contact Corey Brill via email at corey@goarbo.com or phone at 202-505-5296. https://www.goarbo.com/
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