NGL Roundup: November 3, 2023
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- EIA NGL production for August came in line with our forecast at 6,549 Mb/d, a 104 Mb/d (2%) increase M-o-M and an addition of 488 Mb/d (+8%) Y-o-Y.
- Ethane recovery came inline with our expectations. Recovery in the Bakken continues to surprise with lower frac spreads and might be crowed out by higher recovery in the Permian. The outage that occurred in September at PHP is now resolved, but maintenance is still occurring at El Paso, still leading to lower Waha prices and more C2 recovery.
- Monthly propane exports hit about 1,470 Mb/d in August, a 5% decrease M-o-M. Weekly propane, however, shows exports recovered in October to 1,753 Mb/d, a 13% increase from August. Ethane exports increased 6% M-o-M from July (477 Mb/d) to August (508 Mb/d).
- Weekly Propane/Propylene stocks continue to set new 5-year highs. However, days of supply for propane/propylene have gone below the 5-year average (when including exports).
- Interested in tracking basin and sub-basin NGL production, ethane rejection, and fractionator utilization? EDA’s NGL Network Model and Purity Product Forecast will help you dig deeper than EIA data and connect the dots between NGL supply and demand.
The NGL Roundup reviews monthly NGL data from EIA and East Daley’s own basin-level supply forecasts of Y-grade and NGL purity products. Follow key NGL data trends:
- NGL production by basin
- Supply forecasts by NGL purity product
- Ethane recovery by basin
- Historical and future NGL prices
- Conway and Mont Belvieu frac spreads
- NGL storage trends
- Regional NGL exports
The NGL Roundup is East Daley’s latest product driving transparency to energy markets. We provide a FREE snapshot of data from our NGL Network Model and Purity Product Dataset. These reports tie our NGL supply forecasts to downstream markets, providing asset-specific insights such as pipeline and fractionation volumes and rates.
We use our patented method to monitor midstream flows from processing plants to fractionation centers, identifying infrastructure bottlenecks before the market recognizes them. Using a bottoms-up approach to supply, we go deeper than the PADD or sub-PADD level to truly understand what is happening on the ground in NGLs.