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Summary:
- The latest EIA NGL production data came in 6,753 Mb/d in September, 3% (+206 Mb/d) above our forecast and August levels and 10% growth Y-o-Y (+599 Mb/d).
- NGL production came in higher than expected in the Permian and Anadarko, indicating an uptick in GPMs in those regions. However, the biggest driver of the beat was in ethane recovery. Frac spreads in the Anadarko jumped above $0.05/gal for the first time since November 2022. Offsetting the beats was the Northeast, where ethane recovery came in below expectations.
- Exports dipped M-o-M but remain well above last year’s levels. Weekly propane/propylene exports averaged 1,730 Mb/d in November, a 3% decrease from October but +13% Y-o-Y. Monthly ethane exports data also declined slightly (1%) M-o-M from August to September but was +13% Y-o-Y.
- There seems to be no end in sight for the high propane inventories, with forecasts of a warm winter so far ringing true this year. Exports are picking up the slack, but are also on thin ice with the current issues at the Panama Canal.
- Interested in tracking basin and sub-basin NGL production, ethane rejection, and fractionator utilization? EDA’s NGL Network Model and Purity Product Forecast will help you dig deeper than EIA data and connect the dots between NGL supply and demand.
Get a complete view of NGL markets in The NGL Roundup, now available FREE from East Daley Analytics.
The NGL Roundup reviews monthly NGL data from EIA and East Daley’s own basin-level supply forecasts of Y-grade and NGL purity products. Follow key NGL data trends:
- NGL production by basin
- Supply forecasts by NGL purity product
- Ethane recovery by basin
- Historical and future NGL prices
- Conway and Mont Belvieu frac spreads
- NGL storage trends
- Regional NGL exports
The NGL Roundup is East Daley’s latest product driving transparency to energy markets. We provide a FREE snapshot of data from our NGL Network Model and Purity Product Dataset. These reports tie our NGL supply forecasts to downstream markets, providing asset-specific insights such as pipeline and fractionation volumes and rates.
We use our patented method to monitor midstream flows from processing plants to fractionation centers, identifying infrastructure bottlenecks before the market recognizes them. Using a bottoms-up approach to supply, we go deeper than the PADD or sub-PADD level to truly understand what is happening on the ground in NGLs.
Learn more and request data on East Daley's NGL Network Model and NGL Purity Product here.
