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Summary:
- EIA latest NGL production data totaled 6,764 Mb/d in November, in line with our forecast. Overall production stayed constant M-o-M and increased 10% Y-o-Y.
- Ethane production came in higher than expected in the Permian for Nov’23. EDA believed the recent Whistler Pipeline expansion would allow for more C2 rejection into the gas stream. This has not occurred as ethane extraction in the Permian remains close to all-time highs. Lower recovery in Anadarko resulted from a decrease in frac spread. Volatility in the Northeast is still driven by repetitive operational variability at the Shell Cracker.
- Total NGL exports remain well above last year’s levels and increased 14% (+149 Mb/d) M-o-M in November (2,807 Mb/d) despite Panama Canal shipping congestion. Weekly propane/propylene exports averaged 1,708 Mb/d in Jan’24, a slight decrease (4%) M-o-M, but a +14% increase Y-o-Y.
- Propane inventory decreased to the 5-year historical average potentially impacted by the recent cold blast.
- Interested in tracking basin and sub-basin NGL production, ethane rejection, and fractionator utilization? EDA’s NGL Network Model and Purity Product Forecast will help you dig deeper than EIA data and connect the dots between NGL supply and demand.
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Get a complete view of NGL markets in The NGL Roundup, now available FREE from East Daley Analytics.
The NGL Roundup reviews monthly NGL data from EIA and East Daley’s own basin-level supply forecasts of Y-grade and NGL purity products. Follow key NGL data trends:
- NGL production by basin
- Supply forecasts by NGL purity product
- Ethane recovery by basin
- Historical and future NGL prices
- Conway and Mont Belvieu frac spreads
- NGL storage trends
- Regional NGL exports
The NGL Roundup is East Daley’s latest product driving transparency to energy markets. We provide a FREE snapshot of data from our NGL Network Model and Purity Product Dataset. These reports tie our NGL supply forecasts to downstream markets, providing asset-specific insights such as pipeline and fractionation volumes and rates.
We use our patented method to monitor midstream flows from processing plants to fractionation centers, identifying infrastructure bottlenecks before the market recognizes them. Using a bottoms-up approach to supply, we go deeper than the PADD or sub-PADD level to truly understand what is happening on the ground in NGLs.
Learn more and request data on East Daley's NGL Network Model and NGL Purity Product here.
