NGL Roundup: October 3, 2023
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- EIA NGL plant production for July came in 2% below our forecast at 6,446 Mb/d, an 81 Mb/d M-o-M drop but +257 Mb/d (+4%) growth Y-o-Y. The M-o-M drop in NGL production was mainly driven by the normalization in LA Gulf Coast volumes, although we are still unsure if the June number was a data error.
- Ethane recovery came in below our expectations, primarily in the Williston, but we were in-line for the TX Inland and NM sub-PADDs. The decline in North Dakota ethane recovery was especially surprising given the jump in ethane prices, while AECO gas prices remained flat.
- In the Permian, the frac-spread jumped to $0.21/gal in July due to the heat waves early in the month that impeded processing plant and fractionator efficiency. Spreads dropped to $0.13/gal in August but are back up to $0.17/gal in September. We initially expected lower frac spreads for September given the Whistler gas pipeline being placed into service but outages at PHP and El Paso in September have resulted in lower Waha prices that could maintain higher levels of ethane recovery.
- Stock of Propane/Propylene recorded new five-year highs. However, Days of Supply (when including exports) paints a more balanced picture as we are back to the five-year average.
- Interested in tracking basin and sub-basin NGL production, ethane rejection, and fractionator utilization? EDA’s NGL Network Model and Purity Product Forecast will help you dig deeper than EIA data and connect the dots between NGL supply and demand.
The NGL Roundup reviews monthly NGL data from EIA and East Daley’s own basin-level supply forecasts of Y-grade and NGL purity products. Follow key NGL data trends:
- NGL production by basin
- Supply forecasts by NGL purity product
- Ethane recovery by basin
- Historical and future NGL prices
- Conway and Mont Belvieu frac spreads
- NGL storage trends
- Regional NGL exports
The NGL Roundup is East Daley’s latest product driving transparency to energy markets. We provide a FREE snapshot of data from our NGL Network Model and Purity Product Dataset. These reports tie our NGL supply forecasts to downstream markets, providing asset-specific insights such as pipeline and fractionation volumes and rates.
We use our patented method to monitor midstream flows from processing plants to fractionation centers, identifying infrastructure bottlenecks before the market recognizes them. Using a bottoms-up approach to supply, we go deeper than the PADD or sub-PADD level to truly understand what is happening on the ground in NGLs.