A $10 drop in oil prices has taken some of the punch out of the NGL growth story. East Daley’s latest Purity Product Forecast trims expected NGL supply growth by 68 Mb/d in 2025 compared to the March forecast. Total production still rises 198 Mb/d on average, but the bigger story is where that growth is happening.
The Permian Basin remains the dominant driver, contributing more than 180 Mb/d of the 198 Mb/d increase in NGL production. Outside the Permian, most other regions have stalled or are shrinking, with sharp pullbacks in the Denver-Julesburg (-23 Mb/d), Anadarko (-15 Mb/d) and Eagle Ford (-8 Mb/d) basins in our April forecast.
Lower oil prices will trim returns in some of the higher-cost basins to develop. Higher transport costs and tariff exposure are also a real concern, and EDA expects these to drag on development in basins furthest from Gulf Coast demand centers.
This isn’t just a slower-growth story: it’s narrower growth. The shift means that midstream risk is rising in non-core basins. Projects in the DJ, Anadarko, and even Eagle Ford will need to fight harder for volumes and investor interest. Those with exposure to gathering or fractionation assets outside the Permian will face more challenges.
See East Daley’s Purity Product Forecast for more on NGLs, and the Ethane S&D and Propane S&D reports for a deeper view of product markets. - Julian Renton.
Did You Miss East Daley’s NGL Webinar?
East Daley on April 16 hosted a webinar reviewing the NGL market outlook. In Fueling the NGL Surge: Growth Across Key Basins, Infrastructure, and Midstream Advantage, we covered basin growth and key producers, infrastructure and midstream players, and explored the growing linkage between commodity markets. If you missed it, please sign up to review the webinar.
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